An Empirical Analysis of the Random Walk and Stock Market Efficiency Hypotheses in the Nigerian Stock Market: Evidence from Hurst Exponent and ARGARCH Model
Authors
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David Adugh Kuhe
Department of Statistics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi-Nigeria
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Blessing Iveren Yaweh
Department of Statistics, Joseph Sarwuan Tarka University, Makurdi-Nigeria
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Japheth Terande Torruam
Department of Computer Science, College of Education, Oju, Benue State-Nigeria
Abstract
Hypothesis (RWH) and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) rnwithin the Nigerian stock market, utilizing daily All Share Index (ASI) rndata from the Nigerian Stock Exchange spanning from January 2, rn1998, to December 31, 2024. The analytical approach integrates the rnAugmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the Random Walk rnModel, Hurst Exponent Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis, and the rnsymmetric AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Findings from the ADF test rnand random walk analysis reject the presence of a unit root and random rnwalk behaviour in stock returns. Furthermore, both the yearly and fullrnsample Hurst exponent estimates, including the filtered R/S Hurst rnexponent, yield values greater than 0.5 (H>0.5), indicating that shocks rnto stock returns exhibit persistence and are not random. Similarly, the rnAR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model reveals that volatility shocks are highly rnpersistent over time. Collectively, these consistent results across rnmethodologies suggest that Nigerian stock returns are persistent, rnpredictable, and deviate from randomness, implying that the market is rnweak-form inefficient. Consequently, the null hypotheses of a random rnwalk and weak-form market efficiency are rejected. This inefficiency rnmeans that stock prices in Nigeria are not fully reflective of available rninformation, making them predictable, prone to mispricing, and rnvulnerable to arbitrage, speculation, and manipulation. The study rnrecommends strategies such as short-term trading for investors, timely rndissemination of market information by operators, mitigation of rntrading frictions, and the development of policies to promote active rnand vibrant stock market activities.

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